Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Emission Trading on Social and Economic Development under the Change of International Oil Price

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Liqin Zhang, Ruiqi Sun

Abstract

The drastic fluctuation of international oil price has a great impact on social and economic development. It is of great significance for social and economic development to analyze the impact of carbon emissions trading under the fluctuation of international oil price on social and economic development. Johansen test and state space model are used to study the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on carbon market price change and yield. VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition are used to explore the impact of carbon emissions trading on energy price and consumer price index fluctuation, so as to analyze the social and economic development of carbon emissions trading under international oil price fluctuation. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between international oil price and carbon price, and the spillover of international oil price to carbon market and yield shows that oil price can lead to the change of carbon price, but because of the change of EU energy consumption structure and the continuous improvement of carbon trading mechanism, the spillover effect shows a downward trend. The fluctuation of carbon trading price under the change of international oil price constitutes energy. Source price fluctuation causes, but the impact on consumer price index (CPI) is small, which does not constitute the cause of affecting social and economic development. The carbon price has little impact on domestic oil price fluctuation, and has a positive effect.

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